I'm really bummed that the new team has failed.

What were they called?

I'm watching my local U12 boys team this year, it's cheap, close to my home, and filled with local talent.

Actually…

MN soccer guy’s reply is great for a skeptic, which I consider myself to be. It is a veritable garden of critical mistakes, containing just oodles and oodles of interesting examples of common errors in reasoning and logical fallacies. Let’s take a stroll…



I used Open Cup results to do a basic statistical analysis of play between the teams of the USL’s various leagues and USASA teams. When doing stat analysis, the bigger the sample, the more accurate it generally becomes:

http://rationalwiki.com/wiki/Sample_size

My sample size here is 84 matches. His is one.

By his logic, the 1972 Buffalo Bills, who ended the season with a 4W-9L-1D record, were almost as good a team as the 1972 undefeated, 17W-0L-0D, Super Bowl Champion Miami Dolphins, because the Bills only lost to the Dolphins by one point when they played in Miami.



Honestly, I don’t know. But to give him the benefit of the doubt, let’s assume that they played all their matches away against USL teams.

According to various studies… (here’s one, for example):

http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/2007/07/home-field-advantage-in-mls-and-goals.html

when you have two teams of equal quality, the home team would be expected to win roughly between 55 and 58 percent of the time. (Derived from studies of MLS and EPL records) They would be expected to out score their visiting opponent by a ratio of about 5 goals to 3. Logically, this means that visiting teams would be expected to win about 42 to 45 percent of the time while being out scored by that 5 to 3 ratio.

Well, just to keep the math simple, let’s round the home advantage up to 60 percent, meaning the away team would only be expected to win 40 percent of the time. And to be fair, MN soccer guy doesn’t say that amateur soccer is equal in quality to Pro Div. 2, just nearly. So, we’ll give the home team another 10 percentage point advantage. And we’ll lower the expected goal output for USASA teams to 3 out of every ten instead of three out of every five, due to their being only nearly-as-good.

So, if home vs. away were such a big determining factor in Open Cup results, you’d expect the presumed away-playing USASA teams to have a .300 winning percentage against USL teams while scoring 30 percent of the goals.

A quick review of my last post, however, shows that USASA teams can only muster a .250 winning percentage against PDL teams, a .200 winning percentage against USL-2 teams and a .100 winning percentage against USL-1 teams. Only against PDL teams do they get their expected share of the goals, scoring 33 percent of the goals per match total, as compared to an expected 30 percent. Against USL-2 and USL-1 they only score 25 per cent and 17 percent, respectively.

Obviously, there is much more than home field advantage that’s needed to explain the dismal record the supposedly nearly-as-good amateur teams rack up against semi-pro and pro teams.

And oddly enough, MN soccer guy provides some of them.



Yep, roster instabilities and extra travel hardships are certainly two of many good reasons that amateur teams do not perform nearly as well as Pro Div. 2 teams do. But that’s the point. Pointing out the reasons for inferior performance doesn’t make the performance better. No matter what the reasons are that amateur teams’ winning percentages against pro teams are lousy, the fact remains; amateur teams’ winning percentages against pro teams are lousy. And that’s because their quality of play isn’t nearly as good as pro teams are.



Classic Red Herring Argument coupled with Argument by Anecdote. (See Rational Wiki link above.) He saw a competitive MASL match that had four past and future Thunder players on one of the teams and wonders how good they could have been against the 2005 Thunder if they had practiced more. No indication as to how this proves that MASL level soccer is nearly as good as Pro Div. 2 soccer.

But what the hey, this wouldn’t be an uhclem post without some extra length to it. So let’s take a closer look at the ’05 Internationals. We have Jeremiah Bass, a quality player who is about to prove himself so by becoming a starter with the Thunder two seasons later.

We have Andrei Gotsmanov, who had just finished his freshman year at St. John’s and who would not be nearly the player he became over the next three years. He is also a player who, so far, has not been able to make the end of the bench in MLS. In short, a prospect in 2005.

We have Amos Magee, who had retired from playing USL-1 soccer because his performance had declined from a previous high standard and his belief that his body could no longer stand up to the rigors of Div.2 training and play through an entire season. (This was told to me by Amos, himself. I know he told many others this, too.)

We have Serguei Gotsmanov, who was 46 years old in 2005 and was retired from Div. 2 pro soccer for SEVEN years, being no longer able to hold a starting spot with the Thunder in his last season, 1998.

And finally we have, I’m guessing, around 15 or so other guys who MN soccer guy didn’t bother to mention. I suspect none of them were any better then the four he did. My guess is that they win maybe 2 out of ten against the ’05 Thunder. But since there is no way to test the hypothesis, it’s a matter of pure conjecture. Whatever MN soccer guy’s point was, it’s a moot one.



Ah, yes. The old Argument from Authority. Check this:

http://skepticwiki.org/index.php/Argument_from_Authority

So, mebbe if I had practically no knowledge of the game (which ain’t true) or I had never played the game (not true again; played two seasons each of amateur level “B” indoor and outdoor in the mid-80’s) his credits might carry more weight. They are greater than mine, I must admit.

However, I have seen, over the past 14 years, at least 380 Thunder matches, played against a National team, teams from the Guatemalan First division, MLS, PDL, USL D-2, USL D1, Division 1 Colleges and Universities, USASA teams, Mexican team reserve squads, prep schools, and MASL teams including various Infernos, Blackhawks, Fires, Strikers, Tornados and undoubtedly others.

I have seen them play pre-season, regular season, post season, friendlies, scrimmages, school day exhibitions and Open Cup matches. I have seen them play both home and away. I have attended 5 of the last six combines and watched Thunder players playing with and against trialists. I have attended a few of the Augsburg over-the-holiday tournaments where local Minnesota pros have played on teams with local high school and college players.

I have done internet research and prepared reports on combine invitees and other prospective players for the Thunder at the request of the club. I have been asked to do so for this club. So, while I’ll admit again that my total credits are not the equal of his, I am not totally without them myself.

Ultimately, though, our credits don’t amount to a hill of beans when you look at the data. And the data clearly indicates that the there is a great deal of difference in the quality of play between the MASL and Pro Div. 2 soccer.



Again, I refer you to the first hotlink in this post, more specifically the bit about anecdotal evidence.

HIS soccer community, judging from this post, seems to mostly consist of people involved in amateur soccer. Any chance of bias there, do ya think? My soccer community consists of fans of the sport both locally and around the world, pro players both past and present, and most tellingly, the officials of FIFA and the United States Soccer Federation. And those two organizations OFFICIALLY consider the USL/NASL Division 2 league to be a professional league. Let him argue with them, but please, save me a ringside seat.

And as for Senor Jimenez and the Latino soccer observers he reportedly claims to speak for, how does he explain the USL D-1 Puerto Rico Islanders advancing through the preliminary round and the group stage to the quarter finals of the CONCACAF Champions League? And how does he explain the USL D-1 Montreal Impact advancing through the preliminary round and the group stage to the semi-finals?

Oh, and what the heck, what would he have to say about the fact that the Thunder has played a Latin American U-19 team once and Latin American Pro Teams six times (nine, if you include reserve teams) and our results are as follows:

Morelia Reserves-2 wins
Chivas Reserves – 1 win
Dorados de Sinaloa – 1 loss
Communicacciones – 1 win
Costa Rican National U-19 Team – 1 win (in Costa Rica)
Herediano – 1 draw (in Costa Rica)
San Ramon – 1 draw (in Costa Rica)
San Carlos – 1 win (in Costa Rica)
Saprissa – 1 win (in Costa Rica)

Thunder record against Latin American Teams: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.

Well, that covers what MN soccer guy posted.

Here’s what he didn’t post:

Any refutation or data to the contrary on my stat analysis of US Open Cup results. Just a question on whether I factored in home field advantage. I did here and the data still supports me.

Any refutation that he mischaracterized Jeremiah’s leap from MASL to Pro Div. 2 by omitting relevant facts.

Any refutation that, by his logic, there is little difference between high school basketball and the NBA. Or that, by his logic, there is little difference between college, high school, or even amateur “Town Ball” baseball and MLB.

The name of any other player who has jumped directly from the MASL to Pro DIV. 2 soccer with the same measure of success that Bass has enjoyed.

The sum of MN soccer guy's arguments is that he’s been actively involved in Minnesota soccer for over 20 years in a variety of roles and that there is not much difference between the quality of play in MASL soccer and US Pro Div. 2 soccer because he and his friends, many of whom are also involved in Minnesota amateur soccer, say so.

“I ain’t buyin’ it. I recommend that you don’t either.” suggests

That little old jersey collector

Me

Ok. Just to clear up a few things though, all these games you mention would be on top of a league and U.S. open cup schedule? Obviously playing league and cup games at a smaller stadium. I can understand the grassroots idea here. I like some of what you mention, and some I don't. I asked for your opinion and you gave an honest answer. Cool.

Jesse -- Basically, I'm describing a PDL team, which I think is a sustainable concept for this particular market. These ideas probably wouldn't make sense for an NSC club, because they want as many events as possible in their stadium. The Thunder used to play some games at alternate sites, including Apple Valley, but the USL established minimum stadium requirements that essentially ended that program.

@ MN Soccer Guy

Cool. I understand now, that makes it a little clearer for me and I like that model understanding that it would be for a PDL team.

Personally I like when a team plays in one place for the majority of their games, PDL or USL, but again I understand what you are proposing.

are those the real reasons jeff?

Uhclem,

In your extensive statistical analysis, you forgot perhaps the most important number:

All the empty seats

If the USL is so vastly superior to what is offered locally, why aren't more fans at the games, especially at only $5 a pop? And these dynamic teams certainly must have some compelling individual players to follow, I just can't remember who they are.

Although there are a number of other players who played locally before moving to USL -- Joe Warren, John Sylvester, Ansu Toure, Andrew Peterson -- many others didn't because it didn't make financial sense. The USSF has sanctioned USL/NASL as a professional league, but how many players actually earn a livable wage? Almost everyone has to supplement their soccer income with coaching, indoor or even full-time employment.

While players like JB deserve credit for their commitment, there are others of equal or greater ability who decided otherwise. Maybe they had family and/or work responsibilities that made it impossible or extremely difficult to train every day and travel.

Yes, from top to bottom, USL teams are much deeper than USASA squads. They train way more, they play many more games, they are more fit and more cohesive. As a result, they have superior records in head-to-head matchups. Exhibitions between the Thunder and MASL teams are not representative of either side.

I've said this before, but I encourage any fans of live soccer to watch an MASL D1 game between top teams -- TC Fire, Cardinals, Inferno '95, Cougars, Internationals -- and decide for yourself what the level is. The Thursday/Sunday schedule should not conflict with that of the new NSC team.

Uhclem, since you are in Milwaukee, go check out an amateur game, grab a beer and talk soccer with all the old-timers from Germany, Serbia and Croatia:

http://www.wisoccer.org/docs/2009_2010_Mens/2009_2010_Men_Major_Spring_Schedule_1_11_10.pdf

Well played, son.

Your premise as I understand it is that USL is not vastly superior to MASL. Someone here was kind enough to bury that notion in an avalanche of empirical data, twice, and you are still coming back with well, yeah but…

Your almost-as-good argument doesn't hold up, even when factoring in variables, so you claim flatly that USL is not a professional level. It is, so now you come with the liveable wage argument, which is a completely separate discussion. Apparently "many others" of greater ability could have made the jump but chose not to. This argument cannot be tested. It is more anecdotal evidence. We have to take your word for it.

Now you are using the least compelling argument yet: Empty seats. Ever watch a Serie A match? A whole lotta empty seats. Those teams must suck.

I understand that you believe that we should all toodle on down to see a MASL game. Fair enough. Try simply advocating for MASL without disparaging USL/NASL at the same time because what you are doing currently is anti-marketing. It serves only to make me not want to go.